Beard Handicapping 2012

March 19

Once again a coterie of food writers, chefs and restaurateurs have nominated a talented array of professionals to win the James Beard Foundation Chef and Restaurant Awards, and once again I shall endeavor to guess who they will ultimately pick as the winners.

These predictions are based, as they are every year, on the notion that the best nominees are not necessarily selected; the most popular ones are.

Of course, all the nominees are deserving and I hope they all leverage their nominations to promote their services and improve their business. But the winners will be the ones about whom there is the most buzz, about whom the media, nationally and, more importantly, in their own regions, feel good about.

I think local and regional media are most important because judges are instructed to vote only in categories in which they feel qualified to vote, and to promise not to vote for restaurants where they haven’t eaten.

So although I cover the whole country, being based in New York I would not vote for best chef in the Southwest.

So that’s how the voting works, and below are my predictions of who I think will win in categories that I care about. These predictions should in no way be seen as my votes for the awards. They are who I think will win, not necessarily who I’d like to win.

If you’d like to know who’s nominated in other categories, you can look at them here:

Rising Star

Thomas McNaughton, Christina Tosi and Sue Zemanick all were nominated last year, but I think they’re going to be disappointed by the power that is Grant Achatz and his restaurant Next. I think Dave Beran will win.

Dave Beran of Next in Chicago

Daniel Bowien of Mission Chinese Food in San Francisco

Thomas McNaughton of Flour + Water in San Francisco

Christina Tosi of Momofuku Milk Bar in New York City

Sue Zemanick of Gautreau’s in New Orleans

Best new restaurant

I suppose there is a danger that since Next is so hard to get into a lot of judges won’t ethically be able to vote for it, but I think that obstacle will be overcome and Next will win:

AQ in San Francisco

Fiola in Washington, D.C.

Next in Chicago

Isa NYC

Tertulia NYC

Outstanding Bar Program

This is tricky. Not only is it a brand new category, meaning I don’t know how people traditionally vote, but also because, although people do go goo-goo ga-ga over Grant Achatz and will feel compelled to vote for his Aviary, I’ve never met anyone whose eyes don’t moisten a little bit in admiration of James Meehan, the owner of PDT.

I’m going to guess PDT.

The Aviary Chicago

The Violet Hour Chicago,

Bar Agricole in San Francisco,

Pegu Club in New York City

PDT in New York City

Best Restaurateur

Chefs love the Blue Ribbon restaurants. They love them! But they also admire Jean-Georges Vongerichten’s restaurants, whose financier is Phil Suarez. And so do food writers. Both of those restaurateurs, and Tom Douglas, were nominated last year. This year I think Phil Suarez is going to get it.

Bruce Bromberg and Eric Bromberg of Blue Ribbon Restaurants in New York City,

Tom Douglas of Tom Douglas Restaurants in Seattle,

Piero Selvaggio of the Valentino Restaurant Group in Santa Monica, Calif.,

Caroline Styne of Lucques, A.O.C. and Tavern in Los Angeles,

Phil Suarez of the Suarez Restaurant Group in New York City

Outstanding Restaurant

This is sort of a lifetime achievement award and goes to a restaurant that has paid its dues. All of these restaurants except Balthazar also were nominated this year.

The award could easily go to Blue Hill, whose executive chef Dan Barber is a media darling, but there’s something about the gravitas of Boulevard that I think will result in it getting the medallion.

Balthazar in New York City

Blue Hill in New York City

Boulevard in San Francisco

Highlands Bar and Grill in Birmingham, Ala.

Vetri in Philadelphia.

Outstanding Chef

This is also a sort of lifetime achievement award (José Andrés got it last year). As such, it’s kind of surprising that only Paul Kahan and Gary Danko were nominated last year. I think it will go to one of them, and I think there has been more buzz lately about Paul Kahan. So I think it will go to him.

David Chang of the Momofuku restaurants

Daniel Humm of Eleven Madison Park

Gary Danko of Restaurant Gary Danko in San Francisco,

Paul Kahan of Blackbird in Chicago

Donald Link of Herbsaint in New Orleans

Nancy Silverton of Pizzeria Mozza in Los Angeles.

Outstanding pastry chef

Joanna Chang, Dahlia Narvaez and Mindy Segal all were nominated last year, which improves their chances, but I think Daniel Boulud’s star power will shine through and Ghaya Oliveira will win.

Joanna Chang of Flour Bakery + Café in Cambridge, Mass.

Melissa Chou of Aziza in San Francisco

Hedy Goldsmith of Michael’s Genuine Food & Drink in Miami

Dahlia Narvaez of Osteria Mozza in Los Angeles

Ghaya Oliveira of Boulud Sud in New York City

Mindy Segal of Mindy’s Hot Chocolate in Chicago.

Outstanding service

La Grenouille and Topolobampo are back from last year. The judges like giving awards to both Tony Mantuano of Spiaggia and Rick Bayless of Topolobampo, but I’ve been hearing Michael Mina’s name in the ether a lot lately. I think his restaurant will get it.

Spiaggia in Chicago

Topolobampo in Chicago

Cyrus in Healdsberg, Calif.

Michael Mina in San Francisco

La Grenouille in New York City.

Outstanding Wine service

A16, Blackberry Farm and Frasca were nominated last year. Blackberry Farm always gets nominated for something, and they don’t win much. But their PR team has been promoting them pretty well of late, and I think it will be enough to push them over the top.

A16 in San Francisco

The Barn at Blackberry Farm in Walland, Tenn.

Frasca Food & Wine in Boulder, Colo.

Emeril’s in New Orleans

No. 9 Park in Boston

Outstanding Wine, Beer or Spirits Professional

Sam Calagione, Merry Edwards and Paul Grieco are all back for another year. I predicted that Grieco would win last year and I totally blew that one. Although New Yorkers tend to have an advantage in the James Beard Awards, I’m still betting that Sam Calagione’s going to win this year.

Sam Calagione of Dogfish Head Craft Brewery in Milton, Del.;

Merry Edwards of Merry Edwards Winery in Sebastopol, Calif.;

Paul Grieco of Terroir in New York City,

Garrett Oliver of Brooklyn Brewery in New York City,

Neal Rosenthal of Mad Rose Group in Pine Plains, N.Y.

Okay, now the regional awards:

Great Lakes (Illinois, Indiana, Michigan and Ohio):

Last year, on a roster as dominated by Chicago as this one is, Alex Young of Zingerman’s in Ann Arbor, Mich., walked away with a win. Could Anne Kearney do the same? Yes she could. But maybe Stephanie Izard’s star power as a former Top Chef contestant could giver her the edge. Then Again, Sepia was in a Hollywood film, The Dilemma.

I’m betting on the TV chef.

Michael Carlson of Schwa in Chicago

Stephanie Izard of Girl & the Goat in Chicago

Anne Kearney of Rue Dumaine in Dayton, Ohio

Bruce Sherman of North Pond in Chicago

Andrew Zimmerman of Sepia in Chicago

Mid-Atlantic (D.C., Delaware, Maryland, New Jersey, Pennsylvania and Virginia):

Only Vikram Sunderam is new to this list, so it could go any way. But I’ve heard Cathal Armstrong’s name on a number of occasions recently. There’s buzz about him, so he’ll probably win.

Cathal Armstrong of Restaurant Eve in Alexandria, Va.

Johnny Monis of Komi in Washington, D.C.

Peter Pastan of Obelisk in Washington, D.C.

Maricel Presilla of Cucharamama in Hoboken, N.J.

Vikram Sunderam of Rasika in Washington, D.C.

Midwest (Iowa, Kansas, Minnesota, Missouri, Nebraska, North Dakota, South Dakota and Wisconsin)

Here, too, there’s only one newcomer, Gerard Craft. I’m kind of at a loss for this one, but the name Colby Garrelts is jumping out at me. If it jumps out at me, it could well jump out at a Midwestern judge.

Justin Aprahamian of Sanford in Milwaukee

Gerard Craft of Niche in St. Louis

Colby Garrelts of Bluestem in Kansas City, Mo.

Tory Miller of L’Etoile in Madison, Wis.,

Lenny Russo of Heartland Restaurant & Farm Direct Market in St. Paul, Minn.

New York City

Congratulations to Mark Ladner, who joins four nominees from last year. Ladner is the chef of Mario Batali’s only four-star restaurant, which is a big deal. On the other hand, everybody loves Danny Meyer and his restaurants, giving Michael Anthony a good shot. But they admire Michael White.

Does admiration trump love? No, it does not. They’ll vote for Michael Anthony.

Michael Anthony of Gramercy Tavern

April Bloomfield of The Spotted Pig

Wylie Dufresne of WD~50

Mark Ladner of Del Posto

Michael White of Marea

Northeast (Connecticut, Massachusetts, Maine, New Hampshire, New York State, Rhode Island and Vermont)

Jamie Bissonnette’s the only newcomer to this list. He was named the People’s Best New Chef by Food & Wine magazine’s readers last year. It’s possible that the Beard Foundation voters will instead vote for Gerry Hayden, showing their erudition by selecting the former chef of Aureole. But often when a chef wins one award he or she wins many of them. I think Jamie Bissonnette will take this one, too.

Jamie Bissonnette of Coppa in Boston

Tim Cushman of O Ya in Boston

Gerry Hayden of The North Fork Table & Inn in Southold, N.Y.

Matt and Kate Jennings of La Laiterie in Providence, R.I.

Eric Warnstedt of Hen of the Wood in Waterbury, Conn.

Northwest (Alaska, Idaho, Montana, Oregon, Washington and Wyoming)

Is it possible that Food & Wine Best New Chefs is becoming the Golden Globes to the Beard Awards, which are often called the Oscars of the fine dining world?

Izard was a Best New Chef last year, and so was Jason Franey.

Canlis is a very old and very much respected restaurant that has been given a facelift by brothers Mark and Brian Canlis — the third generation in the family to run the place. It’s a sentimental favorite, and we love sentiment. Congratulations in advance to Jason Franey.

Matt Dillon of Sitka & Spruce in Seattle

Jason Franey of Canlis in Seattle

Christopher Israel of Gruner in Portland

Naomi Pomeroy of Beast in Portland

Cathy Whims of Nostrana in Portland

Pacific (California and Hawaii)

I wish I knew how old the average California judge was. Those who remember Michael Chiarello from his Tra Vigne days will feel inclined to vote for him again. Then again, this is California, where young, hip and cool people like Chris Cosentino are admired. But I think Daniel Patterson is emitting an aura of gravitas that I’m not getting from the other chefs.

Will gravitas translate into votes? Maybe not, but I’m betting that it will.

Michael Chiarello of Bottega in Yountville, Calif.

Chris Cosentino of Incanto in San Francisco

Christopher Kostow of The Restaurant at Meadowlands in St. Helena, Calif.

Matt Molina of Osteria Mozza in Los Angeles

Daniel Patterson of Coi in San Francisco

South (Alabama, Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana and Mississippi):

John Harris, Chris Hastings and Tory McPhail are all back from last year. Based on nothing but my gut, I think Chris Hastings is going to win this year.

Justin Devillier of La Petite Grocery in New Orleans

John Harris of Lilette in New Orleans

Chris Hastings of Hot and Hot Fish Club in Birmingham, Ala.

Tory McPhail of Commander’s Palace in New Orleans

Alon Shaya of Domenica in New Orleans

Southeast (Georgia, Kentucky, North Carolina, South Carolina, Tennessee and West Virginia):

Joseph Lenn is the only newcomer to this list, which comes from a part of the country that admires culinary tradition and enjoys voting for Charleston chefs. I think they’re going to vote for Craig Deihl

Huge Acheson of Five and Ten in Athens, Ga.

Craig Deihl of Cypress in Charleston, S.C.

Linton Hopkins of Restaurant Eugene in Atlanta

Edward Lee of 610 Magnolia in Louisville, Ky.

Joseph Lenn of The Barn at Blackberry Farm in Walland, Tenn.

Southwest (Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Nevada, Oklahoma, Texas and Utah):

There’s been a huge turnover of nominees in the Southwest. Bruce Auden is the only returning nominee. What does that mean?

It could mean anything, but in my experience bigger cities have more judges, and Houston is now the third biggest city in the country. That gives a Hugo Ortega an advantage that I think will result in his victory.

Bruce Auden of Biga on the Banks in San Antonio, Texas

Kevin Binkley of Binkley’s Restaurant in Cave Creek, Ariz.

Bruno Davaillon of Mansion Restaurant at the Rosewood Mansion on Turtle Creek in Dallas

Jennifer Jasinski of Rioja in Denver

Hugo Ortega of Hugo’s in Houston

Paul Qui of Uchiko in Austin, Texas.

And those are my predictions. If you have some of your own, why, go ahead and share them in the comments section.